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The race for the 2026 Oscars begins: inside the fall festival gauntlet from the Lido to Toronto
As Venice, Telluride and Toronto roll out their red carpets, the 2026 awards season quietly begins. I break down how the fall festival gauntlet works, why Toronto audiences matter as much as Venice critics, and how the streamers are playing the long game.
I love few moments in the movie calendar more than the very start of September, because that is when the awards season quietly roars to life. While most people are still thinking about the last blockbusters of summer, those of us who follow cinema closely know that the real contest for next year’s Oscars is already beginning on a handful of famous red carpets across the world.
Every autumn, three festivals form what I like to call the gauntlet, the punishing sequence of screenings that separates genuine contenders from mere hopefuls. The Venice Film Festival, running from the second to the twelfth of September, kicks things off, closely followed by the smaller but hugely influential Telluride, and then by the sprawling Toronto International Film Festival from the fifth to the fifteenth.
The gauntlet begins on the Lido
Venice, held on the elegant Lido, has become the launchpad of choice for prestige films hoping to build early buzz among the world’s toughest critics. This year the competition features twenty films, of which twelve are debuting solely in Venice, while another eight will also travel across the Atlantic to screen in Toronto, a sign of how tightly the two festivals are now intertwined.
The lineup reads like a roll call of auteur cinema, with acclaimed directors such as Danny Boyle, Martin McDonagh, Werner Herzog and Florian Zeller all presenting new work. Boyle in particular opens the festival with a film titled Ink, which explores the early days of Rupert Murdoch and his acquisition of The Sun, exactly the kind of bold, talked-about subject that sets the tone for a festival.
What fascinates me about Venice is how a single screening on the Lido can change a film’s entire destiny in a matter of hours. A rapturous standing ovation can turn a small drama into an instant frontrunner, while a muted response can quietly bury months of expensive campaigning, and that raw, immediate verdict is what makes this festival so thrilling to follow.
Why Toronto matters as much as Venice
If Venice is where the critics render their verdict, Toronto is where the audience gets its say, and I would argue that voice is just as powerful. The Toronto International Film Festival is famous for its People’s Choice Award, which has proven over the years to be one of the most reliable early predictors of eventual Oscar success, precisely because it reflects genuine crowd enthusiasm.
This distinction matters enormously, because the Academy is ultimately made up of people who respond to emotion, momentum and word of mouth. A film can be admired coldly by critics in Venice yet truly catch fire only when ordinary festivalgoers in Toronto embrace it, and that combination of critical respect and popular warmth is often the magic formula for a Best Picture run.
Between the two sits Telluride, a smaller and famously secretive gathering in the Colorado mountains that has an outsized influence on the conversation. Because its lineup is often kept under wraps until the last moment, a surprise premiere there can send a jolt of excitement through the industry, adding yet another layer of unpredictability to this already tense stretch of the calendar.
The streamers play the long game
Overlaying all of this is a battle I find endlessly compelling, namely the fight between the traditional studios and the streaming giants for awards glory. These festivals have unveiled their massive lineups partly to reveal the prestige slates that platforms like Netflix will push for the rest of the year, using the credibility of Venice and Toronto to launch serious Oscar campaigns.
The streamers understand that a golden statuette buys a kind of respect that raw subscriber numbers never can, which is why they invest so heavily in this season. Yet the tension with cinemas remains, because many of the year’s most acclaimed films still crave the validation of a proper theatrical run, and how each title balances festival prestige with box office ambition tells its own revealing story.
Not every anticipated title shows up where you expect, either, and the absences can be as telling as the premieres themselves. One of the most talked-about films of the season, a thriller reportedly starring Denzel Washington and Robert Pattinson, was notably missing from the Venice announcement, leaving those of us who track these things to wonder exactly when and where it will finally make its move.
What I will be watching
As all of this unfolds, I will be paying attention not just to who wins prizes, but to the subtler signals that shape the months ahead. The critical reception in Venice, the audience reaction in Toronto and the size of the initial studio campaigns will together lay the foundation of the entire 2026 awards narrative long before any ballots are ever cast.
For me, this is the most romantic time of the movie year, the moment when ambition, artistry and cold strategy all collide on a few storied stages. I will keep following every ovation, every surprise and every quiet snub for you, because the story of who wins next year’s Oscars is, in truth, already being written right now under the late summer lights of the Lido.
